AUDIO: Heading into the perfect storm

Nick Beecroft, senior markets consultant at Saxo Bank in London, takes a critical look at the year ahead and says markets could be heading for the perfect storm.

 

Despite a euphoric start to the year, Beecroft believes deeper risks to the global financial system remain.

 

"We still feel the perfect storm is gathering because the underlying problems haven't been addressed and the eurozone debt crisis still has the propensity to derail the market," says Beecroft.

 

He adds that, while the European Central Bank successfully treated the symptoms of the problem with distribution of liquidity during the long-term refinancing operation in December, there is a question as to how the money will be used. "It doesn't tackle the problem with insolvency in some countries, ultimately requiring Germany and the other richer northern countries to pick up the tab," he says.

 

Beecroft expects EUR/USD to come under pressure, with the eurozone crisis driving the currency pair. Conversely, if the current positivity in markets remains, the interest rate advantage that the euro has enjoyed in the past might disappear, and the unit could instead be taken up as a funding currency.