Consensus forecasts win out


The one-month e/$ consensus forecast for example, which is derived from the mean of all contributors' views, is on average 97.49% accurate since January. Some weeks the consensus view is virtually spot on – notably when the aggregated view of 1.2046 forecast on April 16 fell short of the spot rate on May 17 of 1.2040 by just 0.05%. The 1m consensus forecast has also been within 1% of the spot rate for the periods leading up to February 9, February 16 and May 24.

The bad news is that most of