HSBC reverses its fortunes

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But for Mark Austin, the bank's chief currency strategist, the past month has not been easy to call. The market has been pulled in two directions, he said, due to a conflict between a structural argument – that the dollar is in trouble due to current account imbalances – and a cyclical argument that the US economy is improving, and rates are picking up, making the dollar more attractive. "We've seen examples over the past month in both directions, with expectations of Fed tightening pushing