Are consensus forecasts useful?


But according to the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, the consensus forecasts of the 40 banks on our index – into which all these analytical methods feed – is not a bad indicator.

Examining the one-month euro/ dollar forecasts on the Index for the year-to-date, reveals an average divergence of just 1.77% between consensus views and the actual spot rate one month later.

Easing off

While March was a difficult month in terms of forecasting accuracy – the divergence hits its year-to-date high of