War threat to Q1 FX profits

Early indications are that banks’ volumes are down as uncertainty over the timing, duration and implications of the war kept clients away from FX in Q1 – despite a background trend for rising client interest in FX (see Client trading volumes rising).

“The focus in the first quarter was on basic major trades built around developments in the build-up to the war in Iraq,” said David Gilmore, partner at FX Analytics in Greenwich, Connecticut. “January saw more volume for banks than Febr