Flying in the dark

Bob Savage at
Robert Savage,

The US dollar rolled over in the third quarter of 2012. Many expect it will continue to lose in the fourth quarter, but the more likely conclusion is consolidation or even a modest rally back. For the euro, this might mean a dull 1.25 year-end close against the dollar, with 1.22–1.32 the tight but difficult range.

What we learned in September is that momentum has failed as a model for trading risk. Carry could be the next model to fail. The clash of trend versus other models met in September as