SEB: all eyes on France

Political risk in the European Union will drive currencies for the foreseeable future

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Read the signs: while the Fed is poised to raise interest rates this year, political risk will remain the name of the game in 2017 and well into 2018

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With the political surprises of 2016 still fresh in the minds of many, the market will tread cautiously in positioning for the outcome of the French presidential election, says Carl Hammer, head of global macro and foreign exchange research at SEB, which topped FX Week’s three-month forecast table last week.

Hammer suggests the muted reaction in EUR/USD in the wake of the hawkish tone struck by the Federal Reserve at its February meeting was due to the market’s inten